What the Toronto Raptors draft strategy and success can teach us about extracting extra value at the NHL Draft
The Raptors have had draft success by being unafraid of drafting inconsistent shooters; how can NHL teams emulate that strategy?
The Toronto Raptors have been one of the NBA’s best teams at extracting tremendous value out of unspectacular draft slots— the two players commonly seen as the team’s future, Pascal Siakam and Fred Vanvleet (provided Vanvleet re-signs with the team this offseason), were drafted 27th overall (Siakam) and not at all (Vanvleet, who signed with the Raptors as an undrafted free agent in 2016). Toronto also found OG Anunoby, who should be a fixture in their starting lineup for years, 23rd overall; a highly useful role player that has played an essential playoff role for the club two years in a row in Norman Powell in the second round; and Terence Davis II who stepped into a regular role immediately after being signed as an undrafted free agent going into the 2020 season.
I’m telling you this because I read a super interesting article by Blake Murphy and Sam Venecie in The Athletic the other day that had some intriguing discussion about draft strategy. In that piece, Murphy noted how the Raptors have been willing to draft prospects with questionable resumes as shooters, accepting those faults and relying on their stellar development program to turn those players into above-average NBA shooters. Pascal Siakam only took 17 shots from beyond the three point line in his entire two-year college stint, making just 5. He shot just under 36% from three this year for the Raptors as a willing and enthusiastic three point shooter. Anunoby was a low volume three-point shooter with terrible free throw results in college with questions about his mechanics— he shot 39% on over 3 threes a game this past season. And Norman Powell, who was an inconsistent three point shooter over a four-year NCAA stretch where he shot 31%, knocked down just a touch under 40% of his three point shots in 2019-20. To put those numbers in perspective for the non-basketball people reading this, the best career three point percentage of all time belongs to Steve Kerr at 45.4% and the best three point percentage in the league last season (> 100 attempts) was George Hill’s 46%.
What does this have to do with hockey? Well, the Raptors would appear to have achieved success in the NBA Draft by coordinating with their development staff, identifying a skill area in high demand by NBA clubs (and therefore more likely to drag a player down the draft board if a player shows inconsistent/poor results in that area) that they are confident that they can “fix” consistently with their draft prospects, and then targeting players with inconsistent results in that area at the draft. Using that strategy, Toronto has been able to turn a 27th overall pick into their current #1 offensive option, a 23rd overall pick into their most versatile defensive player and an excellent spot-up shooter, and a second round pick into one of the best shooters on their team.
How could this strategy be translated to the NHL Draft? Shooting is one of the easier basketball skills to develop and it’s also an especially valuable skill in the current state of the NBA. The hockey equivalent would have to be skating— it’s seen as the easiest skill to improve beyond draft day and is very important in today’s high-paced NHL. If an NHL team’s development staff could turn average skaters into above-average ones at a high rate, that’s a massive competitive advantage that would allow them to mine otherwise excellent prospects with skating concerns in the draft and turn them into exceptional value picks.
I think at least two teams already employ this strategy to some extent— the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both of those teams employ Barbara Underhill, former world champion in figure skating and possibly the very best skating coach in the world, and have had success developing average skaters into more mobile players. Brayden Point, Tampa’s #1 centre and an absolute two-way beast, was a third round pick in 2014 because NHL teams didn’t think the 5’10” centre skated well enough to mitigate his size. Now he’s an above-average skater and one of the best centres in the NHL. One of Toronto’s recent picks in the 2020 NHL Draft looks like he may have been selected according to this strategy. William Villeneuve, a former 2nd overall pick in the QMJHL Draft, was only six points off from the point per game mark as a defenceman with the Saint John Sea Dogs. He’s an intelligent player with a strong breakout game and developing two-way ability, but he dropped to the fourth round because his skating stride is about as ugly as you’ll get in an NHL prospect (for the record, I ranked him in the first round because of the potential he has if his team can reinvent his stride). He’s a project, but enough time with Underhill and the rest of Toronto's development staff could turn Villeneuve into an excellent prospect.
It’s important to remember that teams aren’t just drafting players based on who is most skilled or whose current game will translate best to the NHL— they’re drafting players that they believe can be turned into effective NHL players by their team’s development staff. This is one strategy that team’s can employ to maximize the value of their development program and attempt to gain a competitive advantage over other teams. A lot of people are quick to write off average skaters, especially when they’re undersized— that’s why Brayden Point fell so far in the 2014 NHL Draft, and that’s why the next Brayden Point to come along will play for a team with a strong developmental framework. Players like Point aren’t just acquired, they are built up and developed into terrific value finds.