2022 NHL Draft Notebook: Volume 1
Thoughts, clips, and areas to track for Tristen Luneau, Seamus Casey, Conor Geekie, Brad Lambert, Matthew Savoie, and Shane Wright
My tentative plan for the 2022 draft process at this point in time consists of three stages:
Stage One: Watch as many games as possible, trying to get a strong feel for the notable prospects in the draft whilst gathering as much info/video on those prospects as possible.
Stage Two: Scale down the video-watching and use the gathered information to pump out detailed breakdowns on as many of those prospects as possible.
Stage Three: Go quiet for a little while as I produce my final 2022 NHL Draft rankings. Here are my 2021 rankings. I’ll need to address some of the media issues for next year’s edition, apologies for that. Not sure why most load but some do not.
During that first stage, most of the content you’ll be seeing from me will be in the form of these notebooks, which I hope to publish consistently throughout much of the year. Here’s volume 1— I’ve been getting preliminary looks at some of the top prospects in the class over the past little while. This is a dump of my thoughts and clips from those viewings. And, I try to identify an area of each player’s game that I’ll be paying particular attention to over the upcoming season.
2022 NHL Draft Notebook, Vol. 1
Tristen Luneau and slow vs fast breakouts
Luneau is most effective when he’s slowing the play down and utilizing his defensive partner. That’s because he didn’t appear to be particularly comfortable making an outlet pass to his forwards-- he seemed more interested in moving the puck quickly than he did about improving the condition of the puck, often passing to the first “open” forward he saw even if they had incoming pressure that would make it very difficult to find a continuance play afterwards. This created a fair amount of uncontrolled and failed exits.
Luneau played a much more methodical transition game in the third game I watched, looking to use his defensive partner as a passing option when he saw pressure in front of him. My qualitative assessment is that Luneau’s pairing did much better possession-wise when they played this slower, shared responsibility style than when Luneau was rushing plays into pressure due to a higher rate of controlled exits.
This was an awesome play to draw heavy pressure and then move the puck to the weak side-- the difference between this and the outlet passes above is night and day.
This D-to-D pass gives his partner a lot of room on the weak side-- unfortunately, the partner bungles it and goes up the strong side anyway. A very nice read by Luneau nonetheless.
Luneau draws pressure and then reverses the play, creating a straightforward outlet pass for his partner.
Something I really like about Luneau is his eagerness to participate in the offence, not just as a late passing option on the rush but also as a player who can participate in zone exits and lead the rush himself. This little give-and-go action with his D-partner to get the puck in space is lovely.
And this is beautiful activation too-- feigns the D-to-D, cuts back up ice, and creates a controlled entry.
Luneau is an above-average skater in the QMJHL who probably projects as about a 50-grade (average) NHL skater. His top speed and ability to change direction are QMJHL above-average traits, but his explosiveness/acceleration is about average at this level. That ability to change direction is a significant tool for him-- it enables him to make plays like the clip above and this play below (which we looked at earlier)-- but his skating isn’t a major advantage creator beyond that ability. He’s not outskating fast forecheckers or anything, just holding them off with his size and agility.
Seamus Casey and entry defence
Casey is a 5’10, 160 pound right-shot defenceman from Miami, Florida, so he’s just gotta be a fun player to watch. And he is, but he also has some pretty major areas for development. We’ll start with the positive-- I saw some very nice flashes of high-level mobility and deception on the breakout, such as this sweet move from behind his net on the penalty kill (that is a wonderful amount of confidence for the PK).
There’s a nice amount of chaos in this play; within that chaos lies a solid outlet read that just slips off the forward’s stick, a nice dangle in the neutral zone, and then a zone entry down the wall.
I also saw some promising o-zone playmaking activity. Casey likes to work down the wall and look to pass into the slot, either finding a cross-ice seam through the middle of the ice to the weak-side winger or “shooting” for a stick in the slot in hope of a redirect.
The major knock is definitely Casey’s defensive impact. He shows little interest in contesting zone entries, is not particularly useful in puck battles, and can bleed chances against because of his aggressiveness. Here he is giving up the inside lane and getting absolutely walked on a zone entry.
Tries to step up on a puck in the neutral zone, loses the race, and the other team scores on the ensuing two-on-one.
Lets a guy sneak in behind him in the neutral zone, that player receives a stretch pass, goes in on the breakaway, and scores.
As a small defenceman, you need to accept that your in-zone defence probably won’t be great because of a lack of reach and strength. But you shouldn’t accept poor defensive results-- instead, you should leverage your strengths, which for small defencemen tends to be skating, and play a smothering gap through the neutral zone to try to deny as many entries as possible. Casey currently exhibits lax gap control and a lack of focus on the defensive side of the puck; I’m hoping to see improvement there next season.
Brad Lambert and perimeter offence
I think the folks in charge of these Finnish hockey clubs should probably stop rushing these poor teenagers into professional hockey. Lambert never really got comfortable in U20 and he was already playing full time in the Liiga… that’s a pretty solid blueprint for a perimeter player. And it’s a real shame, because Lambert is a great skater who seems to have a full arsenal of high-level tools-- puck skills and vision especially-- but he rarely gets to use them in dangerous areas.
Here’s a look at that skating-- cruises by this Swede to win the race to the puck (it was blown down for icing anyways).
He’s a deceptive passer as well-- I like how he keeps the defending forward on the far side guessing which side the pass is going to go with his eyes before feeding back-door.
Lambert gets the secondary assist here-- that’s a nice feed on the give-and-go leading to an absolutely beautiful goal for Finland.
Works down the wall and finds the cross-ice seam for a primary assist.
So, great skater and he seems to be a high-level playmaker (if we could see him working into the slot and distributing from there, we’d have a better idea). But the guy is allergic to the slot.
Look at all this skating for nothing more than low-danger chances. Lambert is way too elusive and way too skilled to be settling for these types of looks. And this is in a U18 game! I think Lambert was rushed to the pro game waaay too fast. The last level he dominated was U16. He only played 6 games in U18 before he was promoted to U20!!! And while he was very solid in U20 (38 points in 42 games), he never got a chance to really master that league before he was playing against men full time. When you’re pushing a guy up to a higher level of competition before he becomes fully comfortable in the last, that player is going to get used to playing uncomfortable-- deferring to teammates, getting contained outside, settling for low percentage looks-- and all of the sudden, that uncomfortable playstyle becomes his normal style. And that’s where you get a 17-year-old full-time Liiga player who is struggling to get to the slot even against his U18 peers. Honestly, I think Lambert should be “demoted” back to U20 (and demoted is a shitty word to use because this isn’t his fault, it’s the fault of the people who continually pushed him up to higher and higher competition) until he begins to dominate that league. Let him re-learn how to get to the middle of the ice-- it’s been years since he’s felt comfortable doing that. And then you can bring him back up to the Liiga and see how he does.
Conor Geekie and quickness for big dudes
Conor Geekie is 6’4”, 205 lbs, which is all fun and good except for the fact that he skates like he’s 6’4”, 205 lbs. And first of all, respect to Conor for almost putting up a point per game as a DY-1 despite being a very limited rush factor-- I know that’s a shitty backhanded compliment, but it really does speak to some of the other areas of his game. We’ll look at some of his strong areas, but let’s take a peek at the skating first.
Top speed isn’t the issue, he probably projects about average there. In spots where he has room to gather momentum, he actually looks like a pretty solid skater.
The problem is that Geekie requires a bit of runway to get going, which is where his quick-strike rush ability starts to become an issue. He lacks the burst and acceleration to pull away from backcheckers and create space for himself in the neutral zone.
There’s only one defender back at the line here and the far side of the ice is wide open-- all Geekie needs to do is get a step on the player checking him and he’ll have a lot of room to work with. But he can’t and he knows it, so he dumps the puck off to his teammate for an uncontrolled entry instead.
The reason why developing some real quickness could be so very important for Geekie is because he’s an absolute menace attacking with speed. He’s 6’4”, has great hands, and is not afraid at all of taking the puck into pressure. Doesn’t get a shot off here, but barrels his way right to the back post.
Without improved burst, we might only see these types of attacks in rare spots where Geekie is receiving the puck when he already has a good amount of speed going. We want him to be making plays like this more frequently.
Some positive notes now. My favourite Geekie trait is definitely his willingness to attack the middle of the ice. This pass doesn’t connect, but you can see the lanes that start to open once you get off the wall.
Lets his wingers push the defence back and coasts right into the slot here, but fans on the shot.
Here is probably the most promising Geekie clip. He’s comfortable holding the puck for an extended period, curls until he finds a lane, and then attacks right down the middle of the defence and distributes for a great chance.
I believe Geekie has said that he models his game after Leon Draisaitl, who is really not quick at all himself. And certain elements of that comparison are certainly present-- the skating looks similar, the size is there, the eagerness to attack the slot/ability to play in traffic is there. Don’t think the elite vision is there and it’s tough to bet on the same type of scoring development that Draisailt underwent. A Draisaitl-lite projection may be appropriate; a similar style, sure, but not the elite-level ceiling due to less spectacular technical tools (plus we can’t really project a guy to play on the same powerplay/share some 5v5 time with Connor McDavid).
Matthew Savoie and play this kid at centre gosh darn it
Savoie played on the wing for some reason with Dubuque of the USHL. Why? I’m not sure. Typically you want your top players touching the puck as much as possible, and when your breakout is as bad as the Saints’ was, there aren’t a whole lot of pucks that find their way up to the wingers in transition. We know Savoie can do a lot of damage in open ice, but I saw a muted version of Savoie who rarely got the puck in those spots. I think playing Savoie at centre would have given him more opportunities to lead the rush up ice and do what he does best-- Savoie’s best moments in my viewings generally came after he forced a turnover during the opposition’s transition process because he finally got a chance to build up a little speed and go at the opponent’s net. Really hoping we see him back in Winnipeg this upcoming season where he’ll be able to build up some real fluidity with his teammates.
Rather than receiving the puck in space, Savoie’s most common responsibility on the breakout was having to dig pucks off the wall and try to do something with them as forecheckers crashed upon him. This was actually a nice opportunity for Savoie to utilize his vision, finding his forwards with cross-ice passes while encountering pressure from the opponent.
He did get a few opportunities to showcase his high-level tools. I liked this little give-and-go with his d-man and then the cross-ice pass for a one-timer.
The playmaking will be the driver of his offensive impact. Fades down the wall into some space, goes back-door for a great chance.
Here’s a little of what he can do in open ice.
Here’s a little bit of intelligence for ya-- gets right in position to cut off the breakout, steals, and scores on the ensuing 2-on-1.
Savoie’s an excellent skater and a very good passer. I think we’ll see a little more out of the hands this upcoming season as he gets more opportunities in open ice. He’s not a big scorer-- he can finish around the slot but he’s not much of a threat from out near the circles. There are a few different things I’ll be watching for Savoie this upcoming season.
How often will he get the puck in space? Was it just a winger/poor team transition game thing like I speculated, or is puck acquisition an issue?
How does Savoie’s strength hold up as he tries to beat defenders and possess the puck near the boards?
How does he develop as a scorer? Will he begin to threaten from further out, or will he remain a guy that dangles his way to the crease and scores from there?
Shane Wright and N/A
Shane Wright had fuckin 14 points in five games at the U18s. AND NINE OF THEM WERE GOALS. I’d probably be a “let’s wait a little bit until crowning Wright the runaway favourite for first overall considering he only played five games all of last year” guy because that’s my style except for how Shane Wright had fuckin 14 points in five games at the U18s (just wait until next year when we get to talk about how Matvei Michkov had fuckin 16 points in 5 games at the U18s). The three top players for this class were hyped as Wright, Savoie, and Lambert. Savoie and Lambert have a few minor/potentially a little more than minor concerns, as we’ve discussed. Wright does not. He’s an exceptional skater with exceptional vision and an exceptional shot and an exceptional in-traffic game, which is probably why he got exceptional status from the CHL. I have no real discussion point here other than holy shit Shane Wright is good so let’s just do a little clip dump from the U18s.
Here’s the shot. Literally can’t even see the puck after it leaves his stick (maybe my eyes are just bad??).
My favourite Wright skill is his ability to skate the puck into a ton of traffic and then just improvise some play to keep possession like it’s nothing.
This one’s so crazy to me. I know the pass doesn’t connect, but how does he both know that he has a teammate there AND have the confidence to even attempt that no-look pass?
Here’s his goal from this Sweden game. Supporting the puck up high, recognizes the space in the slot, roofs the puck.
Nice little backcheck recovery to disrupt this shot.