2022 NHL Draft Notebook Vol 4: McKenzie's notebook and early tiers
How the 2022 NHL Draft crop stacks out in my eyes as we enter the 2022 season
Bob McKenzie’s preseason top 16 went out a few days ago and there’s some interesting stuff in it. Thought it would be interesting to run through some of my early thoughts on these 16 and then try to set out some early tiers for the 2022 draft myself.
Shane Wright is extremely comfortable at number one. McDavid had 2.55 points per game in his draft season, Alexis Lafreniere had 2.15. Set the over/under for Wright’s production this upcoming season at 2.3 pts/game? Something interesting to monitor this upcoming season: Wright doesn’t have the ultra-dynamic ‘wow’ factor that we expect from a player as incredibly dominant as he is. Will that open him up to some foolish “this other guy is actually better than Shane Wright” discussion like Alexis Lafreniere faced in his draft year?
Brad Lambert has top two skill, but his struggles to get off the wall against pro-level competition have bled into international play and the Joakim Kemell (ranked 9th) > Brad Lambert takes have begun on Twitter. I’m not close to agreeing with that assessment, but Lambert will need to start to get into the slot more frequently in his second full Liiga season to hang onto his top three berth. The Finn is an elite skater with great puck skills, but years of playing above his age level have allowed Lambert to get used to being contained to the outside. Some time down in U20 could give Lambert a chance to break that habit. Kemell is off to a much better Liiga start than Lambert, with 9 points through his first 8 games. Skill-wise, he doesn’t stack up to Lambert. And similar to Lambert, I don’t think Kemell has looked comfortable thus far in the Liiga getting away from the perimeter and into the middle of the ice— Kemell has struggled greatly to turn zone entries into chances or sustained offensive possessions in my viewings thus far, for example. Kemell has done a better job than Lambert of fitting into an off-puck role, which I think is where the difference in point totals stems from. Whereas Lambert will skate around the perimeter looking and failing to find an opening to cut into the slot, Kemell has been happy to work off the puck, utilize his teammates, and clean up around the net.
Conor Geekie over Matthew Savoie is a fun development. I didn’t think Savoie looked very good in USHL action last year, but Dubuque’s decision to play him on the wing was a contributing factor there. The Saints breakout was ineffective and Savoie was stuck trying to dig pucks off the wall rather than getting out into space on the rush like he’s better suited to. And throughout all that, he still eclisped a point per game for the club while playing in a new environment. Geekie is a big scoring centre that does an excellent job generating slot opportunities for himself, using his size and hands to play through traffic and get off the wall. He is not a good skater, which limits his effectiveness as a rush creator as he struggles to create separation from backcheckers. And I haven’t seen high-level playmaking either, as I have not witnessed the processing quickness to hit tight windows and consistently find teammates as they move through the slot. I’m still giving Savoie the edge, but it’s reasonably close.
I’m interested to see Cooley ranked 6th here. At this point, I would say that I agree with this assessment that Logan Cooley is the best of the NTDP’s forwards. I do not, though, agree that Cooley is the 6th best player in the crop nor do I agree with Craig Button’s sentiment in the article that Cooley projects as a #1C. Cooley’s value stems from his ability to ‘play between checks’ and make passes under defensive pressure in the middle of the ice. He’s a centre that makes his wingers better through his ability to provide a pressure valve option in the middle of the ice— he can turn a doomed play from a turnover into a sustained offensive possession for his team through puck support and passing ability. I don’t see Cooley reaching the level of on-puck creation expected from a top-line centre though— he’s excellent in a support role, but is not a major rush threat nor a player that can consistently bring the puck off the wall and into the slot himself.
Simon Nemec’s 11-seed seems more appropriate than some of the top threes that I’ve seen on public lists. I get Simon Edvinsson vibes— a great skater with undeniably high upside, but a lot of inconsistency as a breakout passer. Video for Nemec, Slafkovsky, and some of the other European guys isn’t available to me on Instat, so I admitted don’t have as strong of a feel for Nemec as those whose video I do have, but I find it interesting that I have yet to see anybody talk about the passing thus far. It seemed to be a pretty apparent issue from the viewings I have gotten. Eleven seems like an appropriate blend between the clear upside but also some reason to be concerned about Nemec’s transitional profile.
I really, really like Ryan Chesley and was surprised to see him just barely crack this top sixteen. He’s a very, very steady force on the NTDP’s blueline. He’s poised, rarely rushes a play, moves the puck away from pressure, and consistently contributes to controlled exits for his club. Add an aggressive mentality while defending the rush and an eagerness to activate offensively, and you have a defenceman that can do it all in the transition game. He’s my top defender in the draft right now.
I tweeted that I was surprised to see Nathan Gaucher crack this list. He has a profile that initially looks rather promising— over a point per game last year in the Q, pretty good top speed, and 6’3”. But I was not very impressed with his game in my DY-1 viewings. He can clean up around the net, win puck battles on the boards, and man the front of the net on the powerplay, but Gaucher has very little on-puck creation ability. I didn’t see him leverage his size to drive to the net in my viewings, and rarely did I see him muster much of anything off of a zone entry. Slow acceleration limits his separation ability and he doesn’t push the needle much as a playmaker. It’s difficult for me to picture him in more than a bottom-six role.
Elias Salomonsson didn’t move the needle much for me in early looks. I haven’t seen high-level breakout passing ability— Salomonsson looked content to hit his first read even when it wasn’t his best one. He’s a solid skater— I’d say he looks about NHL-average— but doesn’t use that mobility a whole lot to create time for himself to make plays. I was impressed with his aggressiveness defending the rush in SHL action, but he needs to do more with his offensive transitions. I prefer fellow Swede Mattias Hävelid at this point in the season, despite most lists I’ve seen going the other way thus far.
Not included in the graphic are McKenzie’s four honourable mentions: Isaac Howard, Tristen Luneau, Denton Mateychuk, and Danny Zhilkin. Zhilkin I haven’t seen— he’s an OHL guy who didn’t play last year. Howard definitely has skill, but he often tries to do too much himself and really turns the puck over a lot on zone entries. I’m unsure of his ability to get off the wall. Tristen Luneau is currently injured. In my DY-1 viewings, I thought that he was a player who struggled trying to accelerate the play and make outlet passes up ice. However, I thought he looked excellent in situations where he slowed the play down, attracted pressure, and then utilized his defensive partner. His line looked to do far better possession-wise in games where Luneau played slow as opposed to those where he played fast. Denton Mateychuk really impressed me with his ability to retrieve pucks in the defensive zone and use his mobility to find space on the breakout; he managed to avoid situations where tough reads were neccessary through his quickness. I liked him more than Luneau for sure.
2022 NHL Draft Tiers
Below is a tiered list of the players who I feel I have pretty solid reads on as the 2022 draft season begins. You’ll notice that players like Juraj Slafkovsky, Simon Nemec, David Jiricek, and Ivan Miroshnichenko are missing— that’s because they aren’t covered by my InStat subscription (Slafkovsky’s page became available to me very recently, so he won’t be an issue moving forwards). I’ll have to find alternative methods to get real viewings on those guys and they’ll be present in future work once I do so. There are also other players you might have been looking for who aren’t here simply because I haven’t seen them yet or have only seen them once or twice and don’t feel comfortable fitting them in at this point.
Tier One: Shane Wright
Tier One And 3/4: Brad Lambert
Tier Two: Joakim Kemell, Matthew Savoie, Conor Geekie
Tier Three: Logan Cooley, Danila Yurov, Rutger McGroarty
Tier Four: Frank Nazar, Isaac Howard, Noah Ostlund, Ludwig Persson
Tier Five: Cutter Gauthier
Tier Six: Nathan Gaucher
Defencemen
Tier One: Ryan Chesley
Tier Two: Denton Mateychuk
Tier Three: Mattias Hävelid, Tristen Luneau
Tier Four: Elias Salomonsson, Seamus Casey